In recent weeks, weak U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations for a Fed rate cut, driving the rise of non-yield gold. Last Friday, gold prices climbed 0.6%, marking the best single-week performance in five weeks.  

However, remarks from Federal Reserve officials about rates remaining relatively high have sparked concerns in the market about potential disruptions to demand from the world’s largest oil consumer, leading to a drop in oil prices by over 1%. 

Gold >> 

Last Friday, due to the previously released weak U.S. employment data, expectations for a Fed rate cut were reinforced, driving the upward movement of non-yield gold.  

Spot gold continued its rally and briefly surpassed the USD 2370 mark, but failed to hold steady there, ultimately closing up by 0.63%, marking the best single-week performance in five weeks, at USD 2360.70 per ounce. After data showed that the weekly initial jobless claims increased more than expected, gold rose by over 1%. 

The market is currently awaiting the release of U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Retail Sales data (commonly known as “terror data”) this week, all of which could have significant impacts on gold prices. 

Last Thursday and Friday, for two consecutive trading days, gold prices saw strong bullish momentum breaking highs. Throughout Friday, it surged above 2350 during the Asian session, continuing its strong bullish trend with one-sided movement.  

In the late U.S. session, it slightly retreated from the 2378 level and entered into a period of fluctuation, but still closed above 2350, maintaining a strong bullish momentum. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s short-term strategy for gold suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks. 

• Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are around 2370-2380. 
• Key support levels to watch in the short term are around 2353-2350. 

WTI Crude Oil >> 

Last Friday, comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the likelihood of interest rates remaining at relatively high levels had a significant impact on market sentiment, triggering concerns about potential disruptions to demand from the world’s largest oil consumer.  

During the U.S. session, WTI crude oil experienced an almost cliff-like decline, falling to an intraday low of USD 77.79 per barrel, ultimately closing down by 1.75% at USD 77.81 per barrel; Brent crude oil also dropped by 1.66%, closing at USD 82.50 per barrel. 

The remarks from Federal Reserve officials had a notable impact on market sentiment, coupled with the strength of the U.S. dollar, which increased the purchasing costs of dollar-denominated commodities, thereby pressuring oil prices.  

The increase in U.S. fuel inventories and the softening demand trend could trigger bearish adjustments in the market’s perception of demand. Despite the typically strong oil demand during the summer driving season, the current market performance is not as robust as anticipated. 

Last Friday, oil prices remained under pressure, breaking below the USD 79.9 mark in a one-sided downward trend during the Asian-European session. There was a slight rebound during the Asian-European session, but it was capped below the USD 79.9 mark, leading to narrow-range oscillations.  

During the late U.S. session, there was a second attempt to rebound, but once again faced resistance at the USD 79.9 mark, resulting in another one-sided downward movement.  

Ultimately, after 22:00 in the U.S. session, prices accelerated downward, breaking through the USD 79 integer mark and continuing to decline to around USD 78, ending the session on a weak note. 

Technical Analysis: 

Today’s crude oil trading strategy suggests prioritizing short positions during rebounds, with long positions considered as a secondary approach during pullbacks 

• Key resistance levels to monitor in the short term are around 79.6-80.0. 
• Key support levels to monitor in the short term are around 77.5-77.0. 

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