Gold
On Monday, gold prices fell 0.2%, pressured by a stronger dollar and the quick fade of safe-haven sentiment sparked by tensions between Israel and Lebanon. Investors are now awaiting any hints of a rate cut from the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Spot gold opened above $2400 but later gave up all gains, falling below the $2370 level, and closed down 0.14% at $2384.76 per ounce.
The dollar index rose about 0.2% on Monday, reaching a more than two-week high of 104.75 before closing at 104.57, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Additionally, China’s gold consumption, the largest in the world, fell 5.6% in the first half of 2024 due to decreased jewelry demand.
The market broadly expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep rates unchanged this week but possibly acknowledge that inflation is nearing the Fed’s 2% target, setting the stage for a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Traders are betting that the Fed will pave the way for a rate cut in its Wednesday policy meeting.
Gold Technical Analysis:
On Monday, gold surged to $2400 at the open, breaking above the 50% retracement level at $2388. However, during the European session, prices fluctuated narrowly around $2388. If this level is lost, gold may weaken further.
The hourly chart shows resistance at $2403, with European trading showing a slow downward trend, briefly breaking the morning low to reach an intraday low of $2386.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor shorting on rebounds and buying on pullbacks.
- Resistance: $2395-$2400
- Support: $2368-$2363
Oil
On Monday, oil prices fell nearly 1% to a near seven-week low as Israel sought to avoid broader Middle East conflict. WTI crude sharply dropped during the US session, briefly falling below $75, and closed down 0.7% at $75.51 per barrel. Brent crude closed down 0.71% at $79.07 per barrel.
The dollar index rose about 0.2% on Monday, reaching a more than two-week high of 104.75 before closing at 104.57, putting additional pressure on oil prices since international oil is priced in dollars.
Key OPEC+ members will hold an online monitoring meeting on Thursday (August 1), with representatives indicating they are unlikely to suggest any changes to the initial plan to restore production in the fourth quarter.
Additionally, investors should watch for the US June JOLTs job openings data and API crude inventory series data today, along with any geopolitical developments.
Oil Technical Analysis:
On Monday evening, oil prices broke below $76, nearing a one-and-a-half-month low. From a daily chart perspective, the downward trend for US crude is clear. Any short-term rebound is likely to be a temporary correction, with significant resistance between $78 and $80, maintaining the overall weak and volatile trend.
Today’s Focus:
- Short-term strategy: Favor shorting on rebounds and buying on pullbacks.
- Resistance: $76.8-$77.3
- Support: $74.5-$74.0
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Disclaimer
The above strategies reflect only the analysts’ opinions and are for reference only. They should not be used or considered as the basis for any trading decisions or as an invitation to engage in any transaction. Doo Prime does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and assumes no responsibility for any losses resulting from the use of this report. Do not rely on this report to replace your independent judgment. The market is risky, and investments should be made with caution.
